The world has grown numb to the idea of nuclear war. Generations of children grew up practicing nuclear drills under their high school desks, as if fake wood covered in old gum and graffiti would fend off a nuclear winter. As a result, international media has given little coverage to the newest threats, dismissing them as simply products of an ever more dangerous world. Tensions between the Baltic states and nuclear power Russia are only becoming more and more real as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office and NATO takes a backseat.
In the last few months, tensions between Russia and the Baltic states — the geographic group of nations that includes Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have skyrocketed. Head of the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces, Major General Vahur Karus, commented earlier this year about Estonia’s “deep strike capabilities” able to destroy targets deep inside Russian territory. According to him, Estonia will hit military targets to give NATO time to “come and take care of next steps.”
In response, Russian Security Council Deputy Head Dmitry Medvedev threatened Estonia. “Should Russia use, say, tactical nuclear weapons against a state that allows itself such statements,” he added, “nothing but a stain will remain.”
Russian leaders seem content to view these small states as nothing more than a road bump on the path to reclaiming the territorial glory of the USSR. Recent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin have made clear that the endgame he seeks is the creation of a “Russian empire” through reclaiming previously Soviet territory. The Baltic states fear that the end of the war in Ukraine will turn the great eye of the Russian Federation to them next.
Russia’s nuclear protocols previously only permitted the use of nuclear weapons against a state that is also a nuclear power. Now, however, nuclear weapons are allowed against any state using conventional warfare tactics if it is financially or militarily backed by a nuclear power. Most likely, the amendment is a tactic to keep options open when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Still, regarding the Baltics, it significantly impacts the rising tide of hostility in the region. If tensions rise to the point of conflict, Russian nuclear threats will become a chilling reality.
Russia’s territorial expansion into the Baltic Sea would provide vast geopolitical benefits. The sea is one of the most frequently traversed in the world, providing ample markets for fishing, shipping, farming, and tourism. Projections show an exponential increase in the utility of the region in the coming decades.
Both the Baltic states and Russia are in vulnerable positions. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were the last to join the USSR in 1940 and the first to declare independence in 1990. Every country surrounding the sea except Russia is a member of NATO, the organization Russia perceives to be the greatest threat to its sovereignty. However, the Baltic states themselves are highly isolated from the rest of their European allies. Only Lithuania shares a short border with Poland, and the only other land borders any of them have are with Russia or Belarus, countries tightly allied with one another. A simple connection between Kaliningrad and Belarus over the Suwalki Gap would completely isolate the Baltic states. Russia’s border is vulnerable to NATO. However, the Baltic states are also vulnerable because of their isolation from their allies and close proximity to their adversaries.
In the past few years, Russia has begun to test the flexibility of its boundaries with the Baltics. In May 2024 the Kremlin announced that Russia would be unilaterally redrawing its border with Finland and Lithuania, then quickly removed the announcement from its website the next day. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis criticized the announcement as “an obvious escalation against NATO and the EU.” The Kremlin did not further clarify the reason for removal.
Russian leaders may have been attempting to gauge the potential international backlash to such an action—seemingly very little. One day after the announcement disappeared, Russia began to independently remove the buoys marking the Russia-Estonia border without explanation. By September of 2024, more than half of the buoy placements had been disputed or removed altogether. The situation hasn’t made large-scale headlines outside the Baltic Sea.
Tensions between the Baltic states and Russia have been increasing, but Russia is unable to mobilize its army against the Baltic states in its current geopolitical position. Russia’s military is reaching its limit to support the Ukrainian front. An Estonian military service report from 2023 claims that a Russian military attack is unlikely while Russia is embroiled in Ukraine.
However, President-elect Donald Trump’s certain ascension to the White House may further aggravate tensions. He has repeatedly claimed he plans to end the Ukraine-Russia war “in 24 hours.” To end the war that quickly would not only pressure Ukrainians to concede large portions of their territory to Russia, but would also shift Russia’s attention to the Baltics. If Russia is freed from one war, Putin will look towards the Baltic states next.
President-elect Trump has also made threats to remove the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, referred to as NATO. If he fails to do so, he may significantly decrease US funding to NATO. Currently, the US supplies sixteen percent of NATO funding, a fact President-elect Trump has criticized, as more than sixty percent of NATO members consistently fail to meet their minimum financial commitments. The only chance for the Baltic states to withstand Russian aggression relies entirely on a strong, united NATO backing them. According to Article Five, NATO is obligated to militarily back any member state under attack. NATO must have the means to honor an Article Five claim by a member and have the funds to commit military support. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have a combined population of around six million people to Russia’s 144.8 million, a military budget of around $4.4 billion to Russia’s $145 billion, and a nuclear arsenal of zero to Russia’s 5,580. Without NATO behind them, the conflict would be less of a war and more of a demolition. Trump’s election will give Russia the ability to attack the Baltics and deprive them of their primary allies.
Today, NATO is strongly backed by the United States. If the Baltic states were to be attacked tomorrow, NATO would be willing and able to defend them. In mid-2024, NATO staged joint military exercises around Iceland. Polish Navy liaison officer Lt. Bartlomiej Gryglewski stated the drills served to prepare to protect the Baltic Sea “from the enemy.”
Government leaders from across Europe continue to monitor tensions. Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulson estimated that Russia will attack a NATO country within three to five years. A top German general advised Germany to be prepared for war within the next five years. NATO has already begun preparing militarily for such a conflict.
Both Russia, the Baltic States, and their allies have carefully begun to move towards aggression on the international stage. Although the threat of nuclear war is not immediately apparent, the tension between Russia and the Baltics poses a significantly heightened risk to the outside world.
Featured Image: Ceylon Independent
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