The death of Ahmed al-Rahawi, Prime Minister of the Houthi-controlled government in Yemen, represents an escalation of Israel’s military strategy: a move from targeting infrastructure to assassinating leaders. Israel confirmed responsibility for the airstrike that killed al-Rahawi and portrayed it as a necessary dissuasion against the Houthis’ ongoing missile and drone attacks. Since 2023, the Houthis have been firing projectiles at Israeli cities and targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The Iran-backed rebel group describes the acts as solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza. After the most recent strikes against Houthi leadership by Israel, the rebel group vowed to retaliate.
For Israel, the airstrike is a risky decision as well as an opening. As an opportune moment to demonstrate military strength, the violence demonstrates Israel’s ability to project power in the region. This action is consistent with Israel’s current strategy of confronting that form the axis of resistance. The axis includes Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis, and various Iraqi and Syrian militia groups. By eliminating a relevant political figure, Israel signals not only to militia groups, but also to the Iranian government that leaders are no longer safe.
Yet despite the possible beneficial outcomes for Israel, the strike may not achieve its intended effect. Al-Rahawi’s role in the Houthi movement was mostly symbolic. All real authority is held by the Supreme Leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi. The Prime Minister’s death does not necessarily disrupt the chain of command, and may instead contribute to the Houthis’ narrative of martyrdom and resistance. This could increase sympathy and global support for continued attacks from the Houthis, while also strengthening international criticism of Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip.
Iran has developed relations with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis to exert influence and put pressure on Israel while avoiding direct confrontation. Al-Rahawi’s death could be used by Iran as further evidence of Israel’s hostility. This would help support the goals of the axis of resistance, which aims to create unity in the Islamic world by naming Israel as a common enemy for the alliance. However, if Israeli strikes on leadership figures continue and tensions escalate, this alliance could push Tehran closer to direct confrontation. In the long term, the Houthis’ survival and their ability to steadily attack Israel serve Iran’s national interests by draining Israel militarily and diplomatically.
Fiscally, Houthi attacks on shipping have already disrupted more than a trillion dollars in trade through the Red Sea, forcing ships to reroute and driving up costs globally. In the short term, the Houthis are unlikely to stop current operations, especially given their desire to enforce a blockade on Israel. Instead, the strike may push them to intensify retaliatory campaigns and even further escalate a regional war and general economic instability.
Other international actors, specifically the US, also have an interest in the escalation of Middle Eastern in-fighting. The US had previously carried out its own strikes on the Houthis in response to attacks on Red Sea shipping. Under the Trump administration, military operations were relaxed with the claim that the Houthis no longer posed a serious threat. Although the United States has attempted to distance itself, if Red Sea disruptions continue or intensify, America may be compelled to militarily protect global trade.
The most overlooked victims in this situation remain Yemeni civilians. The decade-long civil war left Yemen with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with widespread famine, fuel shortages, and collapsing infrastructure. Airstrikes have caused higher prices for food and fuel in Houthi-controlled regions. Israeli attacks targeting ports and power stations exacerbate these problems and may lead the state to a point where citizens have no means for development, possibly for generations.
Civilians must carry the burden of the conflict, yet have little agency in decision-making. Their struggles become overshadowed by a massive grab for military power by these governments. Every escalation pushes ordinary Yemenis deeper into poverty and insecurity.
Overall, Israel’s pivot in strategy is likely to backfire as its public image worsens on the international stage. It is and will become increasingly difficult to garner support from states other than America as it continues making risky, aggressive decisions that endanger its stance in the region.
Featured Image: Wikimedia Commons
