Between Romania and Ukraine, a tiny country in Eastern Europe is choosing its path for the future in historic parliamentary elections. The neighboring war in Ukraine and the country’s own ongoing challenges mark this collective choice as especially important.
The Republic of Moldova held critical parliamentary elections on Sep. 28 for all 101 seats in Parliament. This vote determined whether the ruling pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, would remain in power, or if the pro-Russian opposition, led by the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), would take the reins.
Moldova’s elections are much more than just a domestic competition between parties — it’s a reflection of a larger existential crossroad. Citizens are increasingly polarized on whether or not Moldova should push for EU membership, and this is evident in every knife-edge election.
Russia and Russian Meddling
Moldova has been evolving its economy and institutions slowly but steadily ever since it became independent from the Soviet Union. Still, Russia has always been a present influence both in politics and culture in Moldova, constantly working to infiltrate governments that aim to align themselves with the EU and the West in general.
In the presidential elections on Oct. 20, 2024, a nationwide constitutional referendum on whether the country should constitutionally cement the goal of EU membership narrowly passed with 50.39 percent of 1.5 million voters. An estimated 300,000 votes were reportedly bought off by criminal groups backed by foreign forces, namely Russia, according to Moldovan investigators. Recently, Russia has been “spending the equivalent of more than 1% of [Moldova’s] GDP to overthrow the government” through propaganda, fake news, bribing, and buying votes, both in Moldova and abroad.
It is important to note the importance of diasporic voting, as a significant number of Moldovan citizens have left to study and work abroad. In a country of 2.4 million, an estimated 1-1.5 million people live abroad, having left the country to seek better opportunities elsewhere, which provides a huge proportion of the support for pro-EU governments.
The 2025 Election
In the 2025 elections, PAS, depicted below in yellow, got about 50.14 percent of the 1.6 million votes in the parliamentary elections, resulting in 55 seats. The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc, depicted in red, received 24.2 percent, resulting in 26 seats. The remaining 20 seats were distributed to Alternativa Bloc, depicted in green (8 seats), Our Party, depicted in blue (6 seats), and Democracy Home Party, depicted in purple (6 seats).
It wasn’t a straightforward election — Moldova had to yet again deal with bad-faith parties. The Heart of Moldova (part of BEP’s coalition) and Moldova Mare were barred from participating in the elections due to allegations of illegal monetary funding, voter bribery, and undeclared funding from abroad. The government reported cyberattacks and hoax bomb threats at voter stations across the world, as well as many disinformation campaigns. Still, voters and their ballots have persevered in prolonging the current government’s power and supporting its endeavors. It demonstrated the country’s desire to move forward with becoming a member of the EU in the future and overall aligning itself with the West.
The European Union and Russian Detanglement
The divide between pro-EU and pro-Russian politics endures, as citizens reflect on their familiar dependency on Russia thus far, and the reality of adapting to an EU model. A momentous era for Moldova is just around the corner, despite the hurdles that need to be overcome in order for full EU integration to take place.
It is clear that the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war have significantly altered life in Moldova. It has taken in over 127,000 refugees, and more than 1.8 million people have entered the country from Ukraine, which has strained the country’s resources. The impact has been minimized by the EU’s $84 million in humanitarian support since the beginning of the war. But besides this, they are also intertwined in their EU applications because they are considered a “package deal” and therefore, both countries will obtain accession at the same time. Unfortunately, more accession negotiation talks have proven strenuous, with Hungary’s veto focused on halting Ukrainian progress, which also risks Moldovan progress.
Currently, most discontent can be attributed to the high costs of living due to inflation and rising energy prices, which lead to a push for closer ties with Russia, which can provide this low-cost gas. Putin understands this vulnerability and just at the start of 2025 cut gas supplies going to Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist sliver of Eastern Moldova that holds the Cuciurga power station. This station provides electricity to 70 percent of Moldova and, since its halt, has furthered the country’s energy crisis. Olga Rosca, foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s president, argues it was a strategic move by Russia to destabilize the country before the parliamentary elections. The switch to buying electricity from Europe has skyrocketed costs for citizens, with Moldova’s parliament declaring a state of emergency at the time. Now, since Moldova joined the Vertical Gas Corridor in 2024 and has worked on finishing new transmission lines, it has become the first country in Europe to “renounce Russian energy resources entirely”.
Moreover, this separatist region needs to be reintegrated into Moldova in order for the EU to be able to accept the country as a member, which just adds to the list of requirements PAS is aiming to achieve as rapidly as possible.
Proponents of the EU integration path argue it would provide a support network for Moldova in which the values of democracy can become better resistant to foreign interference, in addition to the benefit of more security and development assistance due to EU resources and agencies. Accession would primarily improve the education system, infrastructure, living standards, and labor market, which would in turn develop the workforce, reduce youth emigration, and possibly attract the diaspora to return home. Moldova is currently moving forward with its goal to accelerate its growth and integrate itself into the EU market. As a candidate member, it has obtained a 1.9 billion euro Reform and Growth Facility agreement with the EU in order for key socio-economic reforms to take place.
Other factions worry that some of the EU requirements for accession, specifically market liberalization, will increase competition and raise prices even more. It is a strenuous and complex process, and the day-to-day lives of citizens will not be significantly alleviated from financial pain in the upcoming years. The European Commission predicts the end of 2027 as a manageable target date for concluding negotiations, especially taking note of the quick pace at which Moldova is taking on these responsibilities, while others consider the goal date of 2030 set by President Sandu as a high bar.
Either way, had the parliamentary elections given power to the pro-Russian parties, it is certain Moldova would be on a different path — a regression from the advancements in democracy, prosperity, and peace it has made thus far. Even if Moldova simply held a policy of “neutrality,” it would essentially still be under heavy influence of Russia, which would make sure its geopolitical interests are met and halt any attempts at democratization and partnerships with Europe.
It is easier said than done to pull away from Russia, as they are historically, culturally, politically, and economically intertwined, but nonetheless, there is real progress being made. When Russia tugs one way, Moldova, together with the EU, tugs back.
Featured Image: New Eastern Europe
