San Francisco may be a bellwether for November’s midterms, and the future of the Democratic Party. Last November, when U.S. Representative and former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced her long-anticipated retirement, she vacated a seat held for nearly four decades, and gave San Franciscan voters a once-in-a-generation choice.
As the growing shadow of midterm season approaches, voters in San Francisco are deciding the future of the city’s congressional representation for the first time in 39 years.
The three-way race between State Senator Scott Weiner, District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan, and progressive upstart Saikat Chakrabarti — a clear favorite of the crowd — met head-to-head on January 7 at the first staged exchange of the year, hosted by UC Law in downtown San Francisco.
On that damp Wednesday night, the energy at 198 McAllister was noticeably charged by the race’s high stakes. The hall was packed, pushing people into hallways, overflow rooms, and a line around the block as interest in the candidates flew past expectations. The crowd, however, didn’t mind. Unlike an average town hall, the attendees were young, excited, and eager for the night ahead.
This crowd represented a growing excitement in Democrats under the second Trump administration, an excitement inconceivable just 12 months ago.
The candidates reflect a growing rift amongst Democrats nationwide, with older, more institutional support in State Senator Weiner and Supervisor Chan, and a younger, more left-leaning coalition backing Chakrabarti.
“I appreciate [Chakrabarti’s] clarity as a politician,” says Keya Arora, a fourth-year UC Berkeley student who has volunteered for Chakrabarti’s campaign. “He does not shy away from ‘controversial’ political stances and has clear commitments to issues that SF desperately needs attention on.”
Chakrabarti, a founding engineer at Stripe, presented himself as an outsider. Though he’s never served in elected office, Chakrabarti touted his experience as director of organizing technology for Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, and as U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff.
Online, Chakrabarti has gained popularity through a strong social media presence, earning comparisons to New York City’s newly elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani. “Mamdani of the West??” dubbed one Instagram post. Chakrabarti’s retro-styled logo, reminiscent of Mamdani’s campaign in New York, sprinkled across the hall on stickers, pins, and t-shirts.
The comparisons between Chakrabarti and Mamdani stretch further than online discourse. Chakrabarti, himself a young, strongly progressive Asian American, has made these comparisons, in an apparent effort to redirect Mamdani’s support amongst young voters toward his congressional race.
“I’m not the only one doing it,” Chakrabarti said on stage, referencing his progressive vision for the Democratic Party. “Zohran won in New York!”
Supervisor Chan and State Senator Wiener delivered more temperate visions than Chakrabarti’s slash-and-burn solution for the future of Democratic politics.
“Progressive, but pragmatic,” Chan said when asked what kind of representation San Francisco needed. When asked about congressional Democratic leadership, which is facing calls for replacement from the far-left side of the party, Chan defended it, sympathizing with the difficulty of the job.
State Senator Weiner, on the other hand, delivered a vision of increased housing affordability — popular with younger, left-leaning voters — but faced rounds of boo-ing when he refused to call Israel’s war in Gaza a genocide. He also broke from his two opponents in his objection to San Francisco’s 2018 Proposition C, a tax on businesses and individuals making over $50 million that funds homeless services and housing. While he might be a staunch progressive on the national stage, Weiner’s business and Israel friendly politics may antagonize the city’s young and progressive voters.
As Chakrabarti did with Mamdani, Weiner was eager to tie himself to the outgoing representative: “She woke up everyday asking: ‘What am I doing for San Francisco today?’ just like I wake up everyday, asking: What am I doing for San Francisco today?”
As the room cleared, the energy remained. Perhaps it was the lingering joy of the holidays or a break in the week-long rainstorm — one thing was clear: in San Francisco, there is once again excitement in Democratic politics.
November’s midterm elections may define the Democratic Party’s direction for years to come. After a decisive loss in the last presidential election and torrential downturn in approval, Democrats across the country have called for a new path forward.
“I think that elections like this one and like the mayoral election in NYC this past fall are a sliver of hope,” says Arora. “Even though they are smaller scale elections, they show that progressive change is possible within the party, and moreover, that progressive candidates can unify a large, diverse voter base, and not just a fringe minority of young people, as progressive policies are often put off to be. I am really excited by the prospect of SF being represented by a fresh-faced politician with hardline stances and commitments.”
As Democrats nationwide face a struggle for the party’s identity, San Francisco’s congressional race may be a strong indicator of the future. Will progressive wins last November continue to shape the party’s direction? Or will the nation’s blue stronghold err on the side of a moderate status quo?
“As San Francisco goes, as goes the nation,” Supervisor Chan said toward the end of the evening.
This might be crucially true.
