Since 2020, Florida has been written off as a red state, but a series of Democratic wins in Miami, Tampa, and even Mar-a-Lago may have Florida regaining its former reputation as a swing state heading into the 2026 and 2028 general elections.
The trend began in December, with Democrat Eilieen Higgins winning the Miami mayor’s race, defeating a Republican endorsed by President Donald Trump and ending her party’s nearly 30-year losing streak in the city.
Then, in March, Republicans lost out in Tampa and Palm Beach during two special elections for seats in the state legislature. In Tampa’s Senate District 14, Democrat Brian Nathan upset Republican state Representative Josie Tomkow, a shocking result given that her predecessor, former state Sen. Jay Collins, won the seat by nearly 10 percentage points just four years prior before vacating to assume the role of Lieutenant Governor. Across the state in Palm Beach, Democrat Emily Gregory succeeded in flipping House District 87, taking the seat from Republican Mike Caruso, who had won the seat by 19 points in November 2024, which ironically includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Resort.
On both sides of the aisle, party leaders rushed to shape and attach their own narratives to the wins. Democrats claimed the victories as a mandate for the 2026 midterm, with DNC Chair Ken Martin stating after Gregory’s win that if “Democrats can win in Trump’s own backyard, we can win anywhere. From now until November, Democrats are all gas and no brakes as we compete across every corner of Florida and the nation.” Unsurprisingly, Republicans were dismissive of the results, writing them off as a special election fluke. Bryan Donalds, Representative of Florida’s 19th congressional district and the leading Republican candidate for Florida governor, stated, “Special Elections are very different animals” and noted how both Nathan and Gregory won by only a few hundred votes. Donalds remained confident that come November, the lost seats would be regained and declared, “We fully anticipate that in the Midterm Elections, everybody’s going to know once and for all that Florida is a red state.”
Traditionally, special elections have been considered indicators of partisan success heading into regularly scheduled elections. Because turnout in special elections is low, political analysts generally regard them as an early predictor of enthusiasm for a party or candidate, which can be a sign of which way voters are leaning.
To unpack the results of these special election races, analysts typically use the most recent presidential election as a comparison point. Analyzing special elections from a comparison point is critical. For example, Nathan and Gregory winning by only a few hundred votes in their district may not sound impressive on the surface, but if this race took place in areas where Trump had previously won by 8 and 11 points, respectively, the race results signal a revolt against the status quo. In Brian Nathan’s district, more than 46 percent of the voters in his race were registered Republicans, while 37 percent were registered Democrats. Therefore, according to the Tampa Bay Times, if everyone had voted the party line, Nathan would have needed nearly 80 percent of independent voters to secure a victory, an unusually high and unlikely margin. Thus, the numbers suggest that Nathan’s win was a combination of independent voters skewing liberal and plausibly, some degree of crossover voting from Republicans.
Yet as Democrats learned the hard way in 2024, special elections are not always a perfect tell. 2018, 2020, and 2022 all followed a predictable pattern, with Democrats’ success in special elections correlating with their success in the general midterm and presidential elections. In 2024, prior to the presidential election, Democrats outperformed in special elections by an average of 4 percentage points nationwide, but in a turn of events that defied analysts’ predictions, Democrats ended up losing by 3 percentage points in November.
Democratic performance relative to the previous presidential election | Image Source: The Conversation
The results of 2024 should teach Democrats not to celebrate future election wins early. Special elections can be useful metrics, but there are still eight months to go until the general election, meaning there’s no telling how future events may shape public opinion. If the recent weeks have told us anything, international conflict and scandal are frequent in today’s political climate on both sides of the aisle, meaning a litany of divisive issues could arise to disrupt voter expectations. Additionally, as much as party politics have become nationalized, special elections are still reflective of local conditions, such as flawed candidates. Bad candidates have an outsized impact on flipping seats between parties, which was definitely the case in Nathan’s race, as Tomkow was considered a controversial candidate who failed to gain the endorsement of Governor Ron DeSantis and her predecessor, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, due to disagreements in the Florida legislature.
While the predictive nature of the Democrats’ wins in Florida is uncertain, what Democrats can take away is a lesson on what messaging is working and what isn’t. A common theme across Higgin’s, Nathan’s, and Gregory’s races is their focus on affordability and criticism of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
For example, in both Miami and Tampa, Eileen Higgins and Brian Nathan overperformed amongst Cuban voters. This comes as a surprise because Republicans in Florida have traditionally found strong support from voters with heritage from Cuba, the largest Latino group in Florida (28 percent). This is because Republicans have successfully likened members of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing to politicians from the governments that Cuban immigrants fled. The changing attitudes of Cuban and Hispanic voters in Florida signals a response to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies. U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district includes Miami, has acknowledged the faults of her own party, calling the election a “wake-up call.” She says Hispanics want a secure border and healthy economy, but also want some relief for immigrants “who have been here for years and do not have a criminal record,” a form of balanced immigration policy that Trump’s ICE attacks are not aligned with, generating fear amongst all Hispanics throughout Florida, regardless of their legal status and beliefs.
Gregory and Nathan’s campaigns’ main messaging centered around affordability which proved to be highly effective. Both are political outsiders, with Brian Nathan being a Navy Veteran, working-class, union leader, and Emily Gregory being a small-business owner with a public health background. While Republicans in Florida have bogged down the state legislature in “culture wars” over issues like LGBTQ+, critical race theory, and more, Nathan and Gregory recognized that continuing to fight a losing battle over these important, but emotionally charged issues wasn’t worthwhile while many voters are struggling to afford basic needs. Instead, both candidates framed the broad buzzword of “affordability” into clear, real-world issues affecting the residents of Florida such as gas prices, rent, housing, and insurance costs. Additionally, Nathan has pledged to be an advocate for the working class, and wants to fight against legislation making it harder for unions to organize. Even Gregory, who entered a particularly challenging race in a district that is home to Donald Trump (the man arguably at the center of today’s culture wars) was able to avoid letting him become a distraction in her campaign, focusing instead on housing, health care, and public education. She states: “I will work as hard for every single one of the 180,000 constituents in District 87 and not elevate anyone over the rest.”
Ultimately, what Nathan and Gregory’s wins tell us is that Florida voters are fed up with the status quo. Rising costs and Florida’s housing and insurance crisis have only deepened frustrations, and Nathan and Gregory successfully tapped into this energy as political newcomers to connect with voters. Meanwhile, Republicans have lost the plot by focusing on cultural battles.
Voters changing allegiances in these special elections prove that support for a party can be fickle when one’s own financial interests are at stake, something Florida Democrats should continue to bank on going into 2026.
While both Nathan and Gregory will only be in office for a few months before having to run again for re-election this upcoming November, they will be able to sit in and vote in Florida’s special budget session, meaning they can immediately influence how state funds are allocated and advocate for priorities that will benefit their districts. Hopefully, even this short term will allow Nathan and Gregory the opportunity to prove themselves to their constituents before re-entering the battleground.
While Florida Republicans enjoy proclaiming Florida is a “red state,” the reality is that Florida and its voters are not far removed from their swing state past. Florida Democrats should give themselves a quick pat on the back for these special election wins, and refocus their energy away from culture wars and towards the issues that voters are connecting with: affordability and immigration. While the state won’t shift from red to purple overnight, these special elections could allow Democrats to lay the groundwork and infrastructure needed to secure victories in 2026, 2028, 2030, and beyond.
Featured Image Source: Axios