A shapeshifting technology: sometimes in the form of a child’s toy to see the world from up high, most other times a vehicle for explosives or tools for aerial assaults. Both versions are now more accessible than ever.
The Recent Evolution of Drone Warfare
Access to drone warfare used to be limited to state power, but as technological advances in military equipment have developed, there are now many more outlets for non-state actors such as militant and insurgent groups and cartels to utilize drones as a method of violence. They have become cheaper and more effective at targeting specific locations, making violence more attainable. At the start of the 2000s, a drone cost the United States military about seven million dollars, and was a highly difficult weapon to access for the ordinary civilian. It required extensive state resources to construct and specific military training in order to be used. Now, with the rise in commercialization of drones, any determined individual or group can order drone parts for as little as 2,000 dollars, follow instructions online, use it to remotely conduct surveillance, and commit acts of violence. There are about 65 known non-state actors that possess such drones and are able to utilize them in numerous ways, including gathering intelligence and planning drone strikes at specific targets.
In 2016, for example, the Islamic State was found utilizing “kamikaze” quadcopter drones with explosives attached. Other groups such as the Maute Group in the Philippines, the Libyan National Army and Libyan rebel groups in Libya, and Al-Qaeda in Pakistan were also found to operate them for attacks or surveillance. Since April 2024, however, the Islamic State has been releasing a set of technical manuals entitled “Modern Warfare” through encrypted communications channels meant to teach their supporters how to build and use drones for extremist intent. This has allowed for extremist warfare training to occur undetected through the digital world, and into reality where consequences begin to unfold. Drone warfare has now been extended to any individual to act, even alone. There are various lone actor terrorist plots, such as by students in Belgium, England, and the United States, in which drone prototypes were built using 3D printers with the purpose of being used in attacks. Whatever usage of drone warfare happened before is now much more accessible, and at a larger magnitude — anyone who is truly determined to master the sky can now learn how faster than ever.
Drones Beyond the Battlefield
Drones are otherwise known as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) which highlights another dangerous feature: scalability. Individuals can program multiple drones at once and control them from a discrete location, making these weapons more appealing as they don’t require a risk of maneuvering them from the attacker’s perspective. In certain conflicts such as in Ukraine, being able to utilize drones instead of human soldiers has proven beneficial for maintaining their territory, as they can employ their industrial and technological capabilities rather than depend on sheer human force. This is a demonstration of the immense popularization of high-volume drone warfare as the preferred method of combat, especially cheaper one-way attack drones. Especially in the age of AI, there is potential for drone warfare to have very minimal human touch, making this an important area for regulation.
The proliferation of the use of drones and automated warfare also leads to a considerable gap in the interaction between the attacker and victim, silencing moral consciousness. When the attacker’s safety is not jeopardized, it is easier for them to become desensitized to utilizing such methods of violence, and on a larger scale. Additionally, using drones allows for a farther distance to be targeted and attacked, even when an insurgent group isn’t even in control of it, bringing danger to civilians anywhere near the borders of the real conflict zone. For example, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan are able to target port cities over a thousand kilometers away from the territory that they actually hold, such as Port Sudan.
As new weaponization tactics have become popularized, there has been a 4,000 percent increase in drone attacks between 2020 and 2024, as both states and non-state actors have the opportunity to increase their reach and precision with this cheap and customizable modern weaponry. In major conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, drone usage is common and analyzed daily. Many other countries also see a risk in drone warfare, but from armed groups within them. There are about nine non-state groups in Africa that have gathered military-grade drones, specifically in Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan. Additionally, drones have been used in cartels in Latin America and various areas in the Middle East, most notably in Iran and Persian Gulf nations at the moment.
A Challenge for the International Community
While this area of modern warfare is certainly becoming more and more recognizable in the news and to those in areas affected, it is a new challenge for international law. According to the Global Peace Index 2024, the accessibility of drone warfare has altered the structure of conflicts in the world, making them complex in their progression and considerably more difficult to resolve. In this context, it is very difficult to assign accountability of an unmarked drone, and this calls for a variety of regulations that need to address non-state actors’ involvement in warfare around the world.
Already, there are such multilateral frameworks in place. The most notable include the Missile Technology Control Regime, designed to regulate the proliferation of missiles and other unmanned forms of aerial warfare, and the Arms Trade Treaty, which covers armed drones as weaponry. Although these are first steps to regulating drone warfare, there is not enough membership or enforcement to make a real difference, especially when it is so onerous to track the large amount of unmanned drones in use.
Drones themselves have never been cheaper, but the price of global security has never been so high.
Featured Image Source: Institut français des relations internationales